North Korea to send volunteers in support of Russian invasion of Ukraine

Neither the North Koreans nor the Russians have anywhere near the necessary heavy lift capability to get 100,000 North Koreans to Ukraine in any timely manner.

Dictators usually like to support each other …

However, you can be sure that Putin will never accept this! Why not?

Because it would be a supreme humiliation for Putin whose army was previously seen as overpowered and who cannot even take control of Ukraine after more than 200 days of fighting.

Putin must win this war alone. He could not justify to his people that he needs North Korea’s help to win. It would be a supreme humiliation that would make him lose the consent of his people sooner or later!

So North Korea will not intervene in the war in Ukraine. It seems incredibly unlikely.

Orthodox thought Is that North Korea would never let it’s Army travel 4000 miles away when they expect the US to invade any moment. Not even a sizable contingent.

While Russia could use the help, the North Koreans will not operate under a Russian command structure. North Koreans are trained since birth to believe they are superior to any non-Korean. This goes beyond rhetoric, it’s full scale religious dogma.

The DPRK is also reticent to let it’s people outside the country unless they are thoroughly vetted. That’s hard to do with a battalion or regimental compliment. It’s impossible at the divisional scale.

Key to this is that North Korea is the buffer state for East Asia from the beachhead the West has on the mainland in South Korea. Does Russia really want to pull out it’s rear guard? The Russian troops left in the East are fairly skimpy.

Yes China will have a fit but is it a WW3 fit?

How will China interpret North Korea engaging in hostilities in the other side of the continent? Potentially drawing China into a multinational conflict. Potentially bring European armies to the East?

There is still a de facto state of war between the United States and the DPRK. All that exists, legally is a fragile armistice. The U.S. never officially declared war but North Korea did. This complicates China’s position. Especially since the North Koreans are almost certain to do something extremely provocative in Ukraine. It is their way.

In practical terms, North Korean troops are tough but not healthy. Virtually every defector whether a soldier or civilian is found to have various parasites, almost invariably they are malnourished and none of them have been vaccinated for anything. Considering the general isolation of North Korea, any external action will expose troops to new pathogens they have not left previously been exposed to.

This just seems like a bad idea and while it is not unlikely that Russia might pay the DPRK for soldiers, it’s not super likely that this will get them good soldiers. Russia is known to use conscripts as cannon fodder and they’ve taken heavy losses just due to doctrine.

North Korea isn’t going to send its best troops to go catch bullets for the Russians, a country that is not even in full war mobilization. It will more likely send its own untrained conscripts or “undesirables” to go die in wave attacks. If they would send troops at all.

Also having North Korean troops in North Korean uniforms fighting under their own flag makes this a multinationals ball conflict for real. Do the Poles stay out, how about the US?

With all of the talk about nukes is it even wise to invite he North Koreans over. Kim could start a nuclear war in Russia fooling around in the East. That’s a losing bet for Russia.

I don’t see it happening. North Korea is the only country that might back Russia but its North Korea, a country Russia pulled support from decades ago. These are not really friendly nations, the just share the same geopolitical adversaries.